Wizard's Have Better Chance at Fourth Than First

Ron Bailey, Publisher

Wizard's have nearly twice the chance of getting the fourth pick as the first.

May 19, 2009 – Despite having the worst record in franchise history, as well as coming in third from the bottom in the National Basketball Association this year, the Washington Wizards, winners of 19 and losers of 63 contests, have almost a 35% chance of picking fourth in this year's NBA Draft. The coveted first pick has close to an 18% chance of being the province of general manager Ernie Grunfield.

Where the Wizards pick will be in large measure determined tonight, via a ping-ball lottery held in Seacacus, NJ. Check it out immediately preceding tonight's Lakers-Nuggets first round playoff rumble (8:00 pm, ESPN). Representing Washington at the drawing will be newly signed head coach, Flip Saunders.

Given the Wizard's finish, their pick will not be below fifth. The slots and their percentages in terms of Washington follow:

1st overall pick: 17.80%

2nd overall pick: 17.36%

3rd overall pick: 16.45%

4th overall pick: 34.67%

5th overall pick: 13.73%

The DC franchise has had four top five picks since the lottery began in '85: Juwan Howard, 5th in 1994, Rasheed Wallace, 4th in 1995, ). Devin Harris, 5th in 2004; Kwame Brown, 1st in 2001.

The statistical ether seems to be cruel to Grunfield et al (how do you have the third worst record in the league but have a better chance of getting the fourth pick then third, when it's supposed to be a chance for terrible teams to get better?). But it is what it is.

Let's just hope the crew gets the first pick, allowing them to select my personal favorite, Hasheem Thabeet (hey, the center Brendan Haywood is a free agent next year). Heck two would be nice, if Thabeet is available.

Pull out the lucky charms fans.